The turning point in ecological and environmental quality that takes into account new factors such as new pollutants will not be reached until around 2050.

In the past year of 2018, whether it was the revision of the Environmental Impact Assessment Law of the People's Republic of China or the clear "win the battle to protect the blue sky, we must do a good job in the control of diesel truck pollution, the treatment of black and smelly urban water bodies, the comprehensive management of the Bohai Sea, the protection and restoration of the Yangtze River, The seven tough battles of "water source protection, agricultural and rural pollution control" all show that in the "catch-up" timetable to achieve the goal of building a beautiful China, the intensity of ecological and environmental protection is constantly increasing.

Ecological and environmental governance is ushering in a "heavy blow", so what is the future direction of my country's ecological and environmental quality? Recently, the article "Comprehensive Study and Judgment of the Inflection Point of my country's Ecological Environment Quality" pointed out: "Around 2025, my country will basically be able to achieve the inflection point of ecological environment quality measured by conventional monitoring indicators, but the inflection point of ecological environment quality perceived by the public will not be achieved until around 2035. The turning point for ecological environment quality that takes into account new factors such as new pollutants will not be until around 2050.”

The study and judgment of the turning point is a "comprehensive question"

"Although there have been studies on the inflection point of my country's ecological environment quality, they often use a few conventional indicators in a certain field as the basis for measuring the 'inflection point', ignoring the comprehensiveness, complexity and severity of my country's ecological environment problems, and conclude that The conclusions are often optimistic," Huang Baorong, the first author of the paper and an associate researcher at the Institute of Strategic Consulting, Chinese Academy of Sciences, told China Science News.

In Huang Baorong's view, because different environmental media and different ecosystems are affected by socio-economic development to varying degrees, the problems they face and the difficulty of governance vary greatly, which makes the time to achieve the inflection point of ecological quality also vary greatly.

The remote sensing survey and assessment of ten-year changes in the national ecological environment shows that from 2000 to 2010, the national terrestrial ecological quality has generally improved, service functions have significantly improved, and the terrestrial ecological quality will also be the first to cross the quality inflection point; wetlands and offshore ecosystems have been affected by more human Affected by activities, it will also take a longer recovery period after being damaged, and the turning point will be reached later. In terms of the environment, the atmospheric environment will be the first to cross the quality inflection point; however, due to the long recovery period of the water environment and the influence of many new pollutants, the time for various types of land and offshore water environments to reach the quality inflection point will be even later; soil pollution control will be more difficult. This will become a major challenge for my country to achieve fundamental changes in ecological and environmental quality and basically build a "Beautiful China" in 2035.

Yu Hai, a researcher at the Environmental and Economic Policy Research Center of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, said: "Pollutant emissions and environmental quality are the result of the combined effects of multiple factors, which brings uncertainty to comprehensive judgments and predictions. The turning point of ecological environment quality and pollution The inflection points of pollutant emissions are different. The decline in the peak value of pollutant emissions does not mean that the ecological environment quality has improved. The inflection point of ecological environment quality should begin to improve at a certain period of time, and all ecological environment factors and regions should reach it. The goal is to achieve fundamental improvement by 2035.”

In recent years, our country has vigorously strengthened the construction of ecological civilization. The next 5 to 10 years will be a period of important strategic opportunities for my country's economic and social development. It will also be a period of prominent conflicts between resource, environment and ecological constraints.

Huang Baorong said: "Generally speaking, in the coming period, my country will be in a stalemate between improving and deteriorating the quality of the ecological environment, showing an overall tendency to improve and a partial tendency to worsen, with some areas tending to improve and some areas tending to deteriorate. Conventional ecological environment quality monitoring indicators are gradually improving, while new unconventional ecological environment quality monitoring indicators are still deteriorating.”

Current situation and contradictions

"From a macro level, the changes in my country's ecological conditions are getting better. Judging from the conditions of the three major terrestrial ecosystems, the forest ecosystem is improving, the grassland ecosystem is improving overall, and the wetland ecosystem is still degrading. Agricultural development has caused Ecological problems have improved, while those caused by urbanization and industrialization have worsened," said Ouyang Zhiyun, director of the Center for Ecology and Environment of the Chinese Academy of Sciences.

Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, my country has vigorously promoted the construction of ecological civilization and green development, established and implemented a central environmental protection inspection system, deeply implemented the three major action plans for the prevention and control of air, water, and soil pollution, and took the lead in issuing the "China's Implementation of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development". National Plan" and implement the "National Climate Change Plan (2014-2020)" in order to promote ecological and environmental protection. Although the overall ecological environment is getting better, the problems existing in my country's ecological environment management cannot be ignored.

"For example, excessive exploitation of surface water resources and groundwater in some areas has led to drying up of rivers and loss of wetlands and lakes. At the same time, ecological problems in the basin are serious. The ecological functions of the Haihe River have been basically lost, and the natural hydrological processes of the Yellow River have also been basically lost. The intensity of hydropower resource development in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River has It’s very big and the ecology has been seriously damaged,” Ouyang Zhiyun pointed out.

Yu Hai said that ecological and environmental protection is a public good that cannot be solved by the market alone, and environmental protection inspections have corrected the course of China's environmental protection.

"From the main point of view, government departments and enterprises must not only continue to improve ecological protection awareness, but also further strengthen ecological environment governance actions. At the same time, the public has a high degree of recognition of the ecological environment, but needs to vigorously improve its practice. Economic development and ecological environment Protection needs to be balanced, and changing the development path is not a simple matter. For example, grassroots departments at the county and district levels need to improve both their technical strength and governance capabilities," Yu Hai said.

Ecological environment management requires long-term strategies

Ouyang Zhiyun told China Science News that the goal of my country's ecological protection is to expand ecological assets, ensure ecological security and increase the supply of high-quality ecological products.

Judging from the international average level, environmental pollution control begins when per capita GDP reaches 14,000 to 17,000 US dollars. According to the "2017 National Economic and Social Development Statistical Bulletin" released by the National Bureau of Statistics, China's per capita GDP in 2017 was more than 8,000 US dollars. Under such conditions, China has taken high-intensity actions in ecological and environmental governance.

However, promoting the green transformation of social economy and improving the ecological environment needs to follow the laws of social economy and natural evolution, and avoid excessive social and economic costs. This means that winning the "tough battle" of ecological and environmental quality protection requires long-term scientific governance.

Ouyang Zhiyun suggested that ecological barriers should be optimized to improve the country's ability to guarantee ecological security. Implement major regional ecological construction projects, and deploy ecological restoration and ecological construction projects in areas with important ecological functions.

At the same time, the watershed system management of mountains, rivers, forests, farmlands, lakes and grasslands will be implemented, with water as the carrier and small and medium-sized watersheds as units, with systematic planning and unified management.

“In the future, we must improve the ecological environment governance system in which the government, enterprises, and society jointly participate, and form a long-term mechanism for pollution prevention and ecological protection. In addition to fighting the tough battles of pollution prevention and ecological protection, we also need to improve technology, standards, systems, legislation, etc. On the other hand, we should strengthen the forward-looking layout for various new pollutants, establish a risk prevention and pollution prevention and control system for new pollutants, and promote the overall improvement of my country's ecological and environmental quality in an orderly manner," Huang Baorong said.