Domestic oil price adjustment may prevent the "sixth consecutive decline"
Release time:
2019-01-09
After falling for more than two consecutive months, in the first week of 2019, multiple good news pushed international oil prices upward. Affected by this, the domestic reference crude oil change rate has rebounded from negative values. The retail price limit of refined oil products on January 14 may be stranded or raised, and there will be no chance of "six consecutive declines".
Multiple survey data show that in December 2018, OPEC production fell by 530,000 barrels per day to 32.6 million barrels per day, the highest since January 2017. Among them, Saudi Arabia's production fell by 420,000 barrels per day. Market investors have gained confidence in the new round of production reduction agreement, believing that OPEC's proactive production reduction was carried out before the production reduction agreement took effect, which means that crude oil exporting countries are eager to stabilize the market supply and demand relationship.
In addition to the warmth brought by production cuts, the overall situation of the crude oil market is improving, and U.S. stocks have bottomed out and rebounded. Data released by U.S. oil services company Baker Hughes showed that the number of active oil rigs in the United States fell by 8 to 877 in the week ended January 4, the first decline in three weeks, compared with 742 in the same period last year. During the same period, as the number of operating rigs in Canada increased by 6 to 76, the number of operating rigs in North America decreased by 2 from the previous month.
Under this, at the close of trading on January 4, the price of light crude oil futures for February delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose by US$0.87 to close at US$47.96 per barrel, an increase of 1.85%. The price of London Brent crude oil futures for delivery in March rose $1.11 to close at $57.06 a barrel, an increase of 1.98%.
The rate of change of crude oil used as a reference for domestic oil price adjustment also rebounded within negative values. Zhuochuang data shows that the change rate of domestic reference crude oil on the fifth working day on January 4th was -2.23%, which corresponds to a decrease of 85 yuan/ton for gasoline and diesel. Equivalent to a price increase, 92# gasoline and 0# diesel will be reduced per liter. 0.07 yuan, -10# diesel will be reduced by 0.08 yuan per liter. If the price adjustment is implemented according to this range, consumers will save 3.5 yuan by filling up a tank (50L) of gasoline.
"However, international crude oil will continue to rise in the later period driven by the production reduction agreement. In addition, the retaliatory rebound of U.S. stocks will continue to benefit the slight rise in crude oil, continue to raise the average level of crude oil in this cycle, and the rate of change is expected to change from negative to positive." Zhuo Chuang Information analyst Zhang Jinyi believes that overall, the new round of refined oil retail price limits may not lead to the "sixth consecutive decline".