New energy installations still need to be accelerated, but not too fast. For the healthy development of the industry, explosive growth should be effectively controlled and "speeding up" should be turned into "fast walking".

Does new energy installed capacity have to grow explosively?

On December 22, 2017, the winter solstice, many WeChat groups of reporters were as quiet as usual, except for a few winter solstice blessings that occasionally popped up. The only exception was a photovoltaic industry discussion group. Information in the group appeared at an average rate of 7 to 8 seconds, lasting the entire morning. What makes investors and photovoltaic practitioners in the group so excited is a long-awaited document published by the National Development and Reform Commission on the website of the industry - "Notice on the Price Policy for Photovoltaic Power Generation Projects in 2018."

This document, which is regarded as determining the direction of photovoltaic subsidies and even the industry in 2018, has not been officially released before. Speculations about it have never stopped in the WeChat group - earlier in 2017, some photovoltaic companies believed that based on the current development situation, it is very likely that distributed photovoltaic subsidies will be reduced by 0.07 yuan/kWh; but in July After the rapid growth of installed capacity in March, the subsidy gap began to be mentioned again, so some investment institutions predicted that the subsidy would be reduced by about 0.12 yuan/kWh.

In the end, the National Development and Reform Commission determined the subsidy rate to be 0.37 yuan/kWh, which was reduced by 0.05/kWh. The reduction was smaller than many people’s predictions. A photovoltaic investor asked in the group: What else can we do with distributed systems? Soon, someone replied: Do it!

The reason why this investor asked this question is that the explosive growth of distributed computing in 2017 was so eye-catching. At present, many research institutions have clearly pointed out that it should not be a problem to complete 20 gigawatts of new installed capacity throughout the year. 20 GW, equivalent to 10 times the annual newly installed capacity in 2014 and 2015 and 5 times that in 2016.

The explosion of installed capacity is not the first time it has occurred in the photovoltaic industry. In 2013, when a large number of components returned to China, a similar scene occurred in ground power stations. If we expand the scope to the entire new energy field, we will find that centralized wind power also experienced an installed capacity explosion around 2009.

For emerging industries, explosive growth is not a bad thing. Especially when it reaches a certain stage of development, only by gaining an acceleration can the industry have the motivation to progress and the company will increase its income.

However, the installed capacity needs to explode, but not "explode", and the industry still needs to accelerate, but should not stall. Past experience with ground photovoltaics and centralized wind power tells us that the outbreak cannot last too long, and it is more important to control the speed in time than to accelerate again.

Small explosions lead to big explosions

The first outbreak of distributed photovoltaics appeared in 2016, but this was 2 to 3 years later than many people expected.

In 2013, the State Council issued a number of plans for distributed development. To this day, the policies at that time are still evaluated by industry insiders as "very favorable and very favorable." However, although the policy is good, it has not brought about the rapid growth of distributed power stations similar to that of ground power stations. In the following two years, an average of 2 GW of new installed capacity was added each year, making the development of distributed photovoltaics always lower than expected.

In 2013, a reporter saw a solar panel installed by a distributed photovoltaic "tester" on the roof of his unit building. When I asked him what was the most difficult thing as a water tester, he said that the policy was no longer an issue, but that it took some time to communicate with the neighbors in the whole building. But in fact, there are only more than 10 solar panels in front of us, which is not comparable in scale to ground power stations with dozens of megawatts. It also adds additional communication costs.

But soon after, policies such as online bidding and project control were introduced, which caused the number of ground power station projects to decrease rapidly, and good projects were even rarer. Some investors did not hesitate to turn to distributed development, and a small burst of 4 gigawatts appeared in 2016.

More importantly, more investors see the prospect of distribution in this wave of small outbreaks. As a result, photovoltaic companies not only continued to invest in more projects, but also actively searched for new spaces and possibilities in the process of returning from the desert to the city. In the following year, three obvious changes occurred in the entire photovoltaic industry: new scenarios, new technologies and new markets.

The so-called new scene, that is, distributed photovoltaics is no longer limited to rooftops. More or less photovoltaic panels have appeared in carports, barren hills, ponds, farmland, greenhouses and other places that were never thought of before. New technology refers to various components with higher conversion rates. Within a limited scope, higher component efficiency means stronger profitability. Therefore, PERC, half-cut, shingled, MWT, etc. have appeared one after another, constantly refreshing high-efficiency components. the concept of. New Market is the transition from west to east. In the era of ground power stations, photovoltaic projects were mainly concentrated in the west. However, after the outbreak of distributed projects, companies began to try the eastern and central regions with sufficient funds and large power demand.

It can be said that the small explosion brought about by the policy allows the industry to quickly adjust in a new space and allows the industry to see new improvements. These improvements are the important conditions for the explosion in 2017.

Expansion will cost a lot

Some people in the industry believe that after the outbreak, regional imbalances have emerged - in most areas, distributed photovoltaics still account for about 2% to 3% of the total installed power generation capacity, or even less, but in some areas, The proportion of distributed photovoltaic installed capacity is already high, approaching 10% in some areas.

But whether in areas with higher proportions or in other areas, common problems are emerging.

The first is consumption. Regarding this issue, there are two different views in the industry: Some investors believe that the development of distributed photovoltaics in the east will not cause too many consumption problems. But more people hold the opposite view. Shi Jingli, a researcher at the Renewable Energy Center of the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, believes that if development continues on this scale for another two to three years, the most likely problem will be local consumption difficulties. Because the overall capacity of the grid is limited, if the penetration rate of renewable energy in a region exceeds a certain proportion, the grid will either need to add a lot of equipment and expand capacity, or there will be power restrictions during certain periods. Liu Yujing, an analyst at Bloomberg New Energy Finance, also holds a similar view. She believes that if too many distributed photovoltaics are built in an area, low-voltage grid connection cannot be used, and high-voltage grid connection can only be used. However, as far as the current situation is concerned, the upgrade of the power grid The speed can no longer keep up with the explosion of distributed photovoltaics.

Second is quality. In July 2017, news that “some household photovoltaic modules are of poor quality” was widely circulated in WeChat Moments. Shi Jingli believes that one of the reasons for this problem is that the overall installed photovoltaic capacity has grown too fast, far exceeding expectations. A reporter once heard of an unspoken rule in the component market: the best components are supplied to power stations, the worse components are supplied to industrial and commercial roofs, and the worst components are supplied to household photovoltaics. Under the premise that the overall installed capacity is large, components with higher quality and higher price must be taken away by the first two, and household photovoltaics can only choose cheap but poor quality components. Just imagine, if the total amount of newly installed capacity can be properly controlled and the fittest survive in the market, then some components with poor quality will be eliminated. On the contrary, if the installed capacity is not effectively controlled, low-end components will always be able to find their own living space, thus bring more quality problems.

The third is subsidies. If quality is a new problem, then subsidies are an old problem. However, the outbreak has made this problem more prominent. Some people in the industry pointed out that distributed photovoltaic installations mainly appeared in 2016 and 2017, when fixed electricity prices were high. Rapid expansion at this time is equivalent to using up future shares in advance, and the future development of the industry will be difficult. . The discomfort mentioned by industry insiders is mainly related to subsidies. As we all know, subsidy arrears are a major problem in the development of renewable energy. As of October 2017, the cumulative subsidy arrears reached 100 billion yuan. Under such circumstances, if the installed capacity continues to explode, subsidies will really become an "unbearable burden."

Walk briskly instead of running faster

Judging from the current trend, there is a high probability that distributed photovoltaics will add 10 to 20 GW in 2018.

On the corporate side, according to Liu Yujing, Bloomberg New Energy Finance recently began investigating the investment intentions of photovoltaic companies in 2018. The results showed that state-owned enterprise investment will not slow down. Although private enterprises are waiting and watching, they are relatively optimistic about the prospects of the industry.

In terms of users, Shi Jingli believes that distributed photovoltaics that are not fully connected to the Internet in 2018 will still implement a fixed subsidy policy. Even if the electricity subsidy has declined, based on the current electricity fee level and subsidy level, users can still get beneficial. Driven by the demonstration effect of the first two years, greater demand will emerge.

But in fact, explosive installed capacity may no longer be advisable. A feasible approach is to meet moderate installed capacity growth without compromising the health of the industry. To achieve this goal, relevant departments must take measures to effectively control explosive growth and turn "speeding up" into "fast walking."

For the government, standards should be put forward to stabilize the existing market. Currently, the government still lacks regulations on the proportion of renewable energy in local areas. When distributed photovoltaic installed capacity accounts for a small proportion, its impact on the power grid is not obvious. However, if 20 GW of new installed capacity continues to appear in 2018, more places may face consumption problems. Therefore, relevant local government departments should formulate standards in a timely manner to clarify the load conditions and acceptance limits in the region. If the installed capacity exceeds the limit, enterprises need to make notes and declare in advance to prevent consumption difficulties.

As for the industry, we need to explore ourselves and work hard to build a big business. There are already many distributed application scenarios, but in the eyes of many photovoltaic professionals, there are still many areas that have not been explored. With the advancement of photovoltaic module technology and the reduction of costs, more scenes can be included, such as panoramic skylights, glass curtain walls, etc. Then, the existing market space is still expected to expand geometrically, leaving room for continued expansion in the future. enough space.