On the afternoon of September 18, the 2018 version of the "World and China Energy Outlook 2050" (hereinafter referred to as the "Energy Outlook") of the China National Petroleum Corporation Economic and Technology Research Institute, a national high-end think tank construction pilot unit, was officially released in Beijing. The report believes that my country's energy development has entered a new historical period, with new and old driving forces continuing to transform; on the demand side, the focus of energy consumption has gradually shifted from the production side to the daily consumption side; on the supply side, clean energy will meet new energy demands and gradually replace high-voltage Carbon traditional energy. my country's primary energy demand will enter a peak plateau period between 2035 and 2040. The energy structure will continue to be optimized. Coal, oil and gas, and non-fossil energy will gradually emerge as a tripartite. Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions will peak before 2030.

Zhang Pinxian, deputy general manager of the Planning Department of CNPC, pointed out in his speech that energy transformation is the general trend, and the general direction is cleaner, lower carbon, more convenient and lower cost. There is more than one path to achieve transformation, but on the premise of achieving the same environmental protection effect and convenience, lower cost is the core. Outlook is a judgment of possible future scenarios. The Institute of Economic Research looks at energy transformation from the perspective of oil people, fully considering the impact of advances in oil exploration, development and conversion and utilization technology on energy transformation. China occupies a pivotal position in world energy consumption and production. China's energy consumption growth rate and structural changes will surely have a greater impact on the world's energy development trajectory.

Jiang Xuefeng, deputy director of the China Petroleum Economics and Technology Research Institute, said that as a national high-end think tank construction pilot unit and China Petroleum's soft science research department, the Economics and Technology Research Institute has continued to carry out medium- and long-term energy development research for many years, and began to write and publish " "World and China Energy Outlook" has attracted widespread attention at home and abroad in the past three years. It echoes the "Domestic and Foreign Oil and Gas Industry Development Report" published by the institute at the beginning of each year. It analyzes and judges the domestic and foreign energy development situation and provides information for people from all walks of life who are concerned about energy development. Provide research references.

He also analyzed and pointed out that the next period will be a transition period for my country's energy to transform into green energy. To adapt to the requirements of high-quality development of my country's economy in the new era, energy development will also accelerate into a period of conversion between old and new kinetic energy. The focus of energy consumption will shift from the main production to energy consumption. Demand has shifted to pay more attention to meeting daily consumption and improving living standards to meet the needs of all people for a better life. Energy consumption in the terminal sector has also continued to shift to higher-quality energy; in terms of energy supply, technological progress has promoted the development of clean energy and the clean and efficient traditional energy Utilized, clean energy will meet the new energy demand and replace traditional high-carbon energy. We hope that this outlook report from the Institute of Economics and Technology can provide a thinking framework for the industry, scientifically look at the various uncertainties in the development process, and strive to explore the deterministic trends.

At the press conference, Dr. Wang Lining, chief engineer of the Petroleum Market Research Institute of China Petroleum Economics and Technology Research Institute, shared the main research results on behalf of the research team. He said that in this year’s report, the possible development process of energy in the world and China is shown through the baseline scenario and the enhanced policy scenario. The results of different scenarios depend on the socio-economic development model, the intensity of technological change, how energy policies are formulated and how large they are. Degree plays a role, etc. Currently, 1 billion people around the world still do not have access to electricity. There is an urgent need to eliminate energy poverty and improve the quality of life. The rapid development of industrialization and urbanization has become a new engine for global energy growth. Global energy shows the development characteristics of diversification, cleanness, low carbon, safety, efficiency and intelligence. With the transformation and upgrading of my country's consumption and the improvement of people's living standards, the requirements for the security and stability of energy supply, reasonable prices, and ecological and environmental friendliness will become increasingly higher. This will promote the continuous improvement of the quality and efficiency of our country's energy system. Research believes that my country's energy intensity will steadily decline, per capita energy consumption levels will continue to increase, and the energy structure will continue to be optimized. In 2050, my country's primary energy consumption structure will basically present a three-thirds pattern of coal, oil and gas, and non-fossil energy.

Zhang Yuqing, former deputy director of the National Energy Administration, Li Junfeng, former director of the National Center for Strategic Research and International Cooperation on Climate Change, Jiang Liping, deputy director of the State Grid Energy Research Institute, Yu Jiao, deputy director of the Sinopec Economic and Technology Research Institute, and the Planning Department of China National Petroleum Corporation Deputy Chief Economist Zhu Xingshan made wonderful comments on the report.

The core judgments of the "World and China Energy Outlook" report are:

World energy will appear under the baseline scenario——

1. Driven by economic and population growth, world primary energy demand will continue to grow before 2050, reaching 18.2 billion tons of standard oil by then, with an average annual growth rate of 0.9%.

2. The world’s energy resources are accelerating their transition to diversification, cleanliness, and low-carbonization, with clean energy accounting for a total of 54% in 2050.

3. Oil, as the main transportation fuel and chemical raw material, will continue to grow in the future, but the growth rate will gradually slow down and will enter a peak plateau period (5.1 billion tons) after 2035.

4. Natural gas is clean, low-carbon, rich in resources, and easy to use. It plays an important role in energy transformation. Its demand will continue to grow, reaching 5.5 trillion cubic meters in 2050, with an average annual growth rate of 1.3%.

5. The Middle East and North America will be the main growth points of future oil and gas supply. The increase in crude oil production in the two places accounts for 85% of the global total increase, and natural gas accounts for 41.8%.

6. World electricity demand will continue to grow, and the level in 2050 will double compared with 2015, of which 72% of the increase in power generation will come from non-fossil energy power generation.

China's energy will show under the baseline scenario--

1. China’s primary energy demand will enter a peak plateau period between 2035 and 2040, reaching approximately 5.6 billion tons of standard coal (3.91 billion tons of standard oil). Due to the rapid optimization of the energy structure, energy-related carbon dioxide emissions will peak before 2030.

2. China’s energy consumption structure is changing to clean, low-carbon, and diversified. Clean energy (non-fossil energy and natural gas) will meet incremental demand and optimize stocks. By 2050, the world will basically be divided into three parts: coal, oil and gas, and non-fossil energy. pattern.

3. Before 2030, oil demand will continue to grow due to the increase in transportation oil and chemical raw materials, and will reach a peak level of about 700 million tons in 2030.

4. Natural gas consumption will be in a golden development period before 2040, and demand in various industries will continue to grow, reaching about 620 billion cubic meters in 2035 and 700 billion cubic meters in 2050.

5. China’s crude oil production can be maintained at about 200 million tons before 2030; natural gas production will grow steadily, reaching about 300 billion cubic meters in 2035 and 350 billion cubic meters in 2050.

6. China’s power generation increase is mainly contributed by non-fossil energy, accounting for 86.4% of the total power generation increase during the outlook period; non-fossil energy power generation will account for more than 55% in 2050.

Under the strengthened policy scenario, energy consumption in terminal sectors such as industry, construction and transportation will all decline significantly compared with the baseline scenario, and terminal energy demand will enter the peak plateau period earlier; the electrification level of the terminal sector will increase rapidly, approaching 50% in 2050 ; The proportion of non-fossil power generation is increasing rapidly and will reach 85% in 2050; primary energy will be more efficient, cleaner and low-carbon; energy-related carbon emissions will also peak earlier and fall rapidly, falling by 60% in 2050 compared with 2015 levels .